Making the Same Mistake Twice

Ever get that feeling of deja-vu?

I do and I got it again this week. The reason that I got this distinct and unsettling feeling was the arguments around the need or desire for a second referendum on the whole 'leaving the EU' debacle.

The leader of the Liberal Democrats, Tim Farron was the most vocal in calling for a second referendum and announced that this would be a formal policy of his party, if elected to Government. Immediately after this statement the inevitable, let's say, firestorm came his way. The sounds of knees jerking was almost deafening.

I'm not going to bore you here with the way that I voted because what has happened, has happened. I put one of the reasons that the leave campaign won is the way that both sides approached the campaign.

The leave side of the argument, to me, concentrated upon arguments that focused upon emotion: Vast additional money for the NHS instead of 'wasted' money to uncontrolled EU budgets; "Taking back control" from faceless bureaucrats and handing it back to directly elected representatives; removal of the judicial system acting in the interests of other nations into a system representing just the UK. Add onto that the distasteful tendency of some to blame foreigners for all of the country's ills, and the arguments are 'heart, heart, heart' all the way.

By contrast the remain side focused upon hard, logical and often extremely esoteric arguments. National debt, trade, workforce levels, performance of the Pound and the like. The use of these intellectual arguments was 'head, head, head'.

I don't in anyway mean to suggest that the average Britain is a dullard. Far from it; they're just too damned busy trying to just get on with their lives, whatever that entails, to have to look into the veracity and ramification of each of these, often technical arguments.

Put bluntly, I think that the in the febrile referendum environment, heart trumped head. It was easier for the voter to 'get their head around'.

The rest, you now know.

The Case for an 'Approval' Referendum

I'm convinced that we, the citizens of the UK, need a second referendum, once the 'deal' with the EU is done and the basis for exit is known. Even if you voted to leave, I'm betting that very few voted for declining standards of living, lower income, poor savings and for your children to be worse off in the future than you are. Thus, if you think that's what's likely, you should have the chance to say so and to say "Sorry, not good enough. Try again..."

In presenting the rational argument for a second referendum, I fear that the advocates of such an argument are repeating the same mistake again: They're concentrating on esoteric, intellectual arguments; probably with the same outcome.

If I've learned something from twenty-odd years in software design of having to explain complex technical concepts to a population that are expert in something other than software, then what you need is a good metaphor that your audience can wrap their heads around. It's on you to make the concept simple to grasp.

Create a Metaphor

Here's a metaphor that I've dreamed up. You may come up with a better alternative.

If you've got a sum of money that you want to use to buy a car, you don't just approach the sales person, hand them the money and say "Get me a car". This is because when the dealer returns with a second-hand Lotus Exige you then say. 

But this is a two-seat sports car that's been owned before and I didn't want a convertible! No, I wanted a new MPV because I have three children that I need to take to school. I wanted a diesel and low running costs. I don't want a car that costs £600 for a single tyre!

Likewise, I consider that the EU referendum vote was the equivalent of the 'handing the money over' and saying "I want to leave". I think that most voters had no idea as to what that would look like. What's more, no one was willing (or able) to tell them what that was.

We need a second referendum if nothing else because UK voters need the ability to say to their representatives: 

No, sorry, I don't like the 'deal' you've negotiated because x, y and z. Please try again. 

If you reduce the point to the car-buying metaphor, then voters will grasp this and will understand your point and agree that it's valid.

My message to the advocates of a second referendum is therefore: Don't make the same mistake twice. Eschew the use of complex, technical arguments to get your point across (unless specifically asked) and use a simple metaphor to convince citizens that your argument is in their best interests. Talk to people, not at them.

Thank you for reading.